Should I risk a depreciating fast car or choose a sensible one?

As The Telegraph’s motoring expert, I weigh in on your car dilemmas to save you money and make your driving life easier

My 2018 Volkswagen T-Roc is not large enough for my wing-foiling equipment. To replace it, I’m thinking of either a new Skoda Kodiaq or Superb Estate, or a year-old Volkswagen Arteon Shooting Brake R, for my £37,000 budget. The Arteon is much sportier and gets great reviews, but I am worried that it is about to be discontinued, which could have an impact on depreciation. I expect to keep the car for about five years. What do you think?
–JW
It sounds as though you feel you need some sort of permission to make the seemingly rash choice of the three. But I don’t think it’s all that rash.
It’s true that the Arteon isn’t in high demand – relatively few people want a big, fast estate with a Volkswagen badge (more fool them, because the Arteon R is indeed pretty great). 
But the majority of any car’s depreciation hits in the first year, so if you buy the Arteon at a year old it should actually depreciate less rapidly than either of the Skodas, because you’re joining the depreciation “curve” (the rate of depreciation as depicted on a graph) when it’s slightly shallower. 
To prove my point, a four-year-old Arteon R (as old as they get) with 40,000 miles retails at about £30,000. 
An equivalent Superb Estate (albeit one a year younger with 10,000 fewer miles, to represent the fact you’d be buying brand new) is about £28,000; a Kodiaq of a similar specification is about £30,000. Given that they will be further back on the depreciation curve, the Skodas will be falling in value more rapidly
Using past values to predict future ones is an inexact science, of course, but it provides a rough guide, which suggests you won’t lose any more money on the Arteon than you would with either of the Skodas. You may even lose less. 
I think you should get an Arteon, but not because of any of the above. You should buy one because you like and desire it; you only live once. If it suits your needs, give yourself that permission. You’ll end up with an unusual, fast, handsome and very enjoyable way of transporting your wing-foiling gear.
4/5